Indian
states viz. Uttar Pradesh, Utarakhanda, Punjab, Goa and Manipur went for the
elections 2017. Although the BJP won lesser seats than Congress in the latter
three states and won only in the former two, the scale of victory that has
astounded many has been said to be a game changer in Indian politics. This is
because, those victories disseminated BJP's opponents, including the historic
national party- the Congress- from UP and Uttarakhand states.
In addition, this
canvassing saw development as the main theme in the campaign, rather than the
usual caste and faith issues. Also, the increased number of members in the
state assembly is going to help the BJP in increasing its share of members in
the upper house of the parliament. While this will free the ruling party from
the burden of aligning with the corrupt government of Tamil Nadu, it will also
free itself from the burden gulping up the humiliating verbal abuses from the
Bengal lady.
If
nothing else, this election did say good bye to the traditional vote banks.
Who gets
the biggest credit for this victory?
 |
| Amit Shah |
After the
victory, the BJP president, Amit Shah, gave the main credit to the Indian PM Mr
Modi and the BJP party workers. While I would agree with the later I would not
agree with the former being the main reason - especially if considered alone.
The
simple reason for this is that if Modi was the main reason, the 'Modi magic'
would have worked in the other states in which the BJP lost, too. Bihar even
saw his mightiest effort gone into the dust bin.
The
Reasons for victory:
1. The
Necessity:
Yes BJP
had the majority in the lower house of the parliament that brought about a
stable government. It, however, lacked the numbers in the upper house. This
made it difficult for the party to pass laws that it needed to modernise India.
It thus had to make friendship with the with other parties.
In
addition, though Mumbai and Assam gave it a face saver, its virtual wipe-out in
Delhi and Bihar, despite efforts, almost made it a laughing stock. It,
therefore, was compelled not to take any chances this time.
2. The
state:
Being the
most important state that even constituted, 'The party that wins UP rules
India', its effort in UP did not start just few months before the elections -
like the AAP in Delhi. It started 2 years ago. In addition, the general
election 2019 wasn't too far. UP mattered a lot and couldn't be taken for
granted.
3.
Strategy:
They had
a multi-pronged attack on the voters using both the micro and macro efforts:
A Micro
effort:
1. Booth
level committees:
The
canvassing in UP wasn't haphazard, or limited to speeches by its leaders alone.
Instead, even if not in all, it did try to make working committee units in
relation to many polling booths. These units were constantly monitored.
A. Better
RSS/BJP coordination:
With the
RSS cadres being on the ground since a long time, and them and the BJP cadres
bringing about a very good relationship unlike in Bihar, campaigning was much
smoother on the ground.
A.
Division of the Muslim vote bank:
 |
| RSS Caders |
All the
so called secular parties (Congress, BSP and SP) have always used Muslims as a
vote bank. Being projected by its enemies as an anti-Muslim party despite its
slogan of development of all, BJP saw little chance on that block vote. As if
tracing the Brits It, therefore, followed the divide and rule policy. It sought
the division between the Shias and the Sunnis. While this pulled the 'minority'
Shias away, strategic support for Muslim women in their fight against triple talaq, especially when voting
would demand a free uninfluenced secret ballot, it brought in Muslim women too.
And when governments pro-poor efforts were put into the ears of the Sunni men,
and 'development of all' was amplified, even some of Sunnis broke ties with
tradition and merged into the BJP line. Suddenly the three secular parties
shared the remaining Sunnis alone. So much so that, almost as a revolution BJP
won even in the Muslim majority areas!!
B. Unison
of the Hindu vote:
Seeing so
much of use and influence of the Muslim vote bank, BJP always dreamt of a
reciprocal Hindu block vote. Yes, Ram temple issue was used during the Kalyan
Singh era. Now it was seen as being used only during elections time by the BJP.
It, therefore, was obsolete, and not even palatable to the election officials.
OTHER
STATES;
Similar
tactic was used in Uttarakhanda. It, therefore, comfortably won there too. But
then, its loss in Punjab and Goa could have been easily averted.
Punjab:
Let
alone the realisation of an incumbency factor effecting the BJP-Akali alliance,
the drug addiction, corruption and the law and order problems in Punjab should
have made the conjoint twins no hopers.
Everybody
knew that Punjabis needed a change. The desire for a change was so great that
let alone the historically corrupt and none performing Congress, people were
ready to vote for the laughable AAP too. In this instance, BJP had a wonderful
opportunity to disjoin itself from the Akali Dal and go alone. The split would
have given them the status of a new party - a new kid in town - with its own
strength - uninfluenced by the corrupt Akali Dal. This new position itself,
would have given them a listening ear. And if ground level work was managed
like in the UP, and the BJPs programmes were explained and future plans
asserted things would have been different. While this would have been enough to
win against the 'one man party' of captain Amarinder Singh, Modi's magic would
have worked wonders. Not having created a receiving platform, BJP was part of
the guilty party that it failed to realise, and Modi's speeches had less
takers. That was BJPs mistake there.
Goa:
Factionalism
and ineffective leader never brings about an election victory. Despite
development, not only several ministers but even the chief minister lost his
seat. BJP should have been aware of the factionalism in its ranks at least at
the time of the election. Almost like putting all its eggs in one basket - UP -
the casual way that it looked at the Goa government vis-a-vis its voters was
sure to make it a casualty. Since Congress wasn't strong either, if only it had
put UP like efforts there it would have certainly tasted victory. And the
central government would not have had to lose its defence minister.
Why
is this win globally important?
Yes
it is. This is because, although it was a local state election in India, it had
global ramifications.
Since
it is seen as voters transcending their religions and castes, and voting in
line with development and aspiration for the future, it adds to the dignity of
India being the largest democracy in the world.
Yes, Indian democracy has to do more in order
to be globally respected but this adds line of 'the largest democracy' and
'good election commission' that brings dignity to India in the world. More
importantly, however, it dilutes the caste system's rigidity that brings
Indians more in line with the Modern Civilization.
Also,
it was not the BJP alone that was frustrated with the lack of BJP's numbers in
India's upper house, foreign investors were frustrated too. Like the BJP,
foreign investors also wanted India to get rid of its archaic laws and bring
about modern laws that were uniform, so that business could be done in India
with ease. Although, this majority by itself just gives BJP a majority in the
local state assembly, it does translate into the power of choosing more members
in India's upper house. Once that is done, leaving aside the power of electing
the country's president, that upper house majority will make it easy for the
present government to erase archaic laws and form modern ones. While this will
make India modern, it will help the international community do business with
India, with ease.
With
India boasting huge consumer base,
globally understood language, cheap labour etc. addition of modern laws
means a lot to the international community. This is why, despite being a local
election it has a global ramification. Trump ringing and congratulating Modi does say something. That is why this article is
written.
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