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Monday, 2 May 2016

American Presidential Elections 2016: Can The Republican Donald Trump Win? What if he Becomes The President?

The US Media and Donald Trump's rise

Donal Trump
Donal Trump | Source
American election has always invoked a global interest. This time, it even has a man, who himself is globally interesting. Although he is said to be press made, he actually is a 'one statement' man - 'We will temporarily block the entry of immigrant Muslims'. While businessmen seeking sales in a crowd is known, reporters don't seem to be much different. As a symbiotic use, while reporters saw an odd speaker and a crowd puller, the odd speaker saw media exposure. This symbiosis would make him the most talked about man in the US - in both the traditional and social media.

This red haired billionaire, however, couldn't afford the luxury of praise. While his intelligence got a 'fool', social skills a 'hatemonger' and facial anatomy an 'ugly', his faith that remained also did not get spared. So, when the faith supremo, Pope, forgot the Vatican's future dealings with the world leader, as a Vicar of Rome he indirectly suggested that Trump wasn't a Christian. Forget personality, God or faith, even him as 'talk of the town' got brushed off as a 'media creation'. Him reigning over a billion mattered less and him reigning over the Capital Hill was a no, even from Ted Cruz.
The only thing that came out of this for Trump was '..any advertisement is a good advertisement'. It seems that Trump has only a small chance of winning the US presidential election 2016?

Can Donald Trump win the election?

Ted Cruz
Ted Cruz | Source
Yes, political pundits fail and exit polls even during election don't give a straight answer to the election results. And special interest groups, evangelical Christians, their companies, oil companies, etc. that influence the US elections don't make it easy either. However, the following factors do play a role.

The promise for a better future:

Election is all about 'It's bad now, we will make it better in the future'. And if rightly done, especially after Obama, one can even hope for a premature Nobel Prize. But then, the present doesn't seem to change, for the future generally matches the present. Even if predicting the future is difficult, Churchill, at least, facilitates the promise with 'A leader predicts what will happen in the future and explain why it didn't happen'.

The slogan:

Promise gives hope alone but slogan gives the drive. When promise gets elevated to slogans, effects are very different. While many offered promises, the drive like 'yes we can' not only made the Afro-American Obama president of the US but brought him a Nobel prize as well.

The looks:

Looks matter and in a competitive glamorised world, even men use cosmetics. Politics is no different. It aided Tony Blair against in his rival Ms Becket in the Labour party leadership election and it pushed JFK almost to the level of Elvis.

The oratory skills:

Irrespective of slogan and promise, oratory skill alone can draw people. But when they together do a 3 in 1, history is made. Obama could not match JFK in looks, but his coherent oratory skills mesmerised people, and after listening to his speech even the intelligent ones wanted to vote for him.

The intelligence:

Of course, intelligence helps tremendously, but with the campaign being a team effort, it isn't essential. Even if we were to forget the ones without much intelligence in history, the elected president George Bush glitters as an example. Strangely, it even finds a matching pair with voters. No wonder, a UK tabloid once screamed in its headline 'How could millions of Americans be so stupid to elect George Bush?

The religion: 

The Pope
The Pope | Source
Even if we forget the porn guzzling church goers, Jesus' love but not Biblical rule following lot or bestsellers from Hitchens and Dawkins as if through the effort of millionaire evangelists, America is still a religious country. And Protestant Christianity is the rule. While a Catholic JFK had to clarify that he will not be influenced by the Pope to succeed in politics, some in the most successful group, Hindus, see conversion to Christianity almost as a necessity.

But then, it is encroached from both the sides - atheism and Islam. Like the atheists, there is rise and rise of the Muslims (migrants & converts). Yet they amount to only a few million and deaths from gun, lobby's guns, is more frequent. But fear invoked by Islam after 9/11, is much higher.

With many Caucasian Americans finding comfort in Islam, Muslims do not make a race. However, the fear of being labelled as a racist makes Americans say less in public. But voting is a private matter. So, although it is said, 'things done in private doesn't matter', this private act matters - for it elects a president. That too a global leader!!
The voter division:

Election data
Election data | Source
In a multiparty system, a party can gobble up smaller party followers. In the case of the US, right from the days of Jefferson just two groups, Federalists and Republicans emerged, and two party system became the norm. Voters are likewise traditionally divided into the Republican and the Democratic Party supporters. Such a big fuss is just about a smaller group - the undecided voters, who can be helped with their decisions - or rather cajoled.

The media: 

When billions are at stake, media doesn't shy away but actually does the staging - a la wrestling match. While it brings people to its gadgets full of election drama, mesmerises them and invokes interest on elections, party advertisements direct the curious to the parties. Suddenly, while the voters get the entertainment and hope, and media gets the money, the spending parties get the hope for votes. Getting something, it looks like a party time for everybody. Even weather takes the second place in initiating a talk! And when the social media walks in, Facebook, Twitter, Google Plus, etc. don't frown. Even the neglected psychologists feel 'even a dog has its day'. Suddenly media circus emerges. And when words speak louder than action like when the Noble Committee got fooled, its use makes Obama become the comeback kid when he won for the 2nd time.

American glory and the decline:

The United Nations Headquarters, New York
The United Nations Headquarters, New York | Source
With it having won the WWII, yes the Pax Britannica shifted to Pax America. And its advance in science, technology, knowledge and cash, along with the collapse of the Soviet Union made it the undisputed leader - despite its Vietnam misadventure. While UN headquarters in New York symbolised it, NATO gave it the extra strength of 'we and our allies'. Suddenly it aired the awe of the Roman Empire.

But then, almost tracing 'what goes up must come down,' and reminding the fall part of the 'Rise and fall of the Roman Empire', while meddling in the affairs of Central America, paradoxically supporting dictators and unethically invading Iraq decreased its prestige, 9/11 hit it hard in every way. And then, while collateral damage in Afghanistan and civil liberties damage back home gave it a bad name, Guantanamo Bay made people laugh behind its back.

Yes, printing globally accepted green dollars has helped its commerce. And creating a money based civilisation, its arms industry brings huge cash from nasty governments. But then, almost like jobs getting outsourced to the East, that inbound cash gets 'insourced' to the rich alone.

And when the Internet gets the good of social behaviour town centre shrinkage takes the middle class with it, only to inflate the rich-poor gap. In the process, debt climbed to trillions.

With STDs, divorces, abortions and single parenthood skyrocketing, and missionaries even blaming Hollywood's influence on women when getting retorts from not converting immigrant heathens, its social structure isn't ideal either. With some trusted faith orators airing sexual scandals and many faith leaders showing enormous dosh, its religion isn't seen in the right state either.

Almost like a 35-year-old child seeking spinster, America certainly is desperately seeking the right man.

In this melee, suddenly Donald Trump emerges from nowhere. And that too, when his looks, vision, smoothness, charm and oration are criticised all over. But then, while Obama's 'yes we can' was for a change, his 'back to glory' even has a proud climax. While all love to bring back the lost glory of America, media add 'business is booming' in his crassness. His voice, although, was for a temporary restriction on Muslim refugees, it spoke in the language of crude Islamophobia that is ubiquitous in all States of America - yet unspoken. While the formed Mohamed Ali vs. Cooper drama was already an excitement, media generated stories out of this unique man's crash statements spiced it up. Despite him thus becoming the 'darling' of the unhealthy media, the criticisms had the resonance of 'any publicity is good publicity'. And when his protest against the Pope reached the Vatican, it added spice to both the media and the Protestant America. Suddenly, his media presence is matching Obama's second term media use. In addition, while his billions add to his power, him being a self-made billionaire adds more.

In any case, even if he is a buffoon, George Bush wasn't bright either. And if what a British tabloid said is true, American voters are no better. Seriously, however, as if out of fun, democracy is known to elect strange people, even prostitutes,

Can Mr Donald Trump be a good president?

The Whitehouse
The Whitehouse | Source
Yes, he utters all sorts of things: Relying on impression, he says Muslims hate us (not we hate Muslims), relying on a certain source, he says Illegal Mexicans are rapists and reacting to trade facts, he plans to retaliate against China, Japan and Mexico. Also, he likes Putin but then denigrates Russia. He plans to elect a wall at the US-Mexican border and even wants the later to pay for it.
These are enough for Cruz to say that his victory would be a grave mistake. No wonder, 110 Republican foreign policy veterans think that he will undermine US security.

But then, is he daft or is he scary?

Well, one thing is for sure, he is not a dumb inheritor of billions but a self-made billionaire and a director of several companies. One who has achieved that level of success - an American dream - in a competitive world, cannot be daft. He or his team can design those as rhetoric targeting at the voting audience - till the Election Day of course.

Obama hugging PM Modi of India
Obama hugging PM Modi of India | Source
Also, if 'said as a campaigner' and 'done as a president' were the same Obama would qualify for a 2nd Nobel Prize, and Churchill would be so wrong. Furthermore, with the elite makers of the president (see above) keeping the rulers and the ruled in a status quo irrespective of the elected president, and the lobby groups habitually overwhelming his/her decisions, American presidents are not always free to do what they want without pressure. For example, Obama sealed his close friendship with the Indian PM, Modi, with a genuine hug, only to come home and criticise him/India for religious persecution there. The incoherence of this brilliant and coherent orator in saying so said it all.


Irrespective of the above, and, after all, is said and done, he has to follow the constitution and face impeachment when its tenet is breached. The fear about him as a president, therefore, is not supported by facts.

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